Oil markets remained quiet on Friday as earlier surges connected to geopolitical tensions mellowed, therefore allowing investors to turn their attention to the basic supply and demand. Early Asian trading saw Brent crude at roughly $65.30 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered at around $61.60; both benchmarks showed very little directional movement from the end of the previous session.
The modest movement reflected a decrease in the war-risk premium following a Gaza war ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, a change that soothed immediate supply-disruption worries. One of the factors stifling the Gaza agreement, which comprises tentative steps toward hostages’ release in exchange for prisoner exchanges and graduated withdrawal by Israel, is one of the more volatile oil price inputs: geopolitical risk. Markets are now looking back at conventional drivers, including OPEC+ policies , inventory levels, and worldwide demand projections, as that premium fades.
Analysts point out that the first phase of the Israel-Hamas agreement changed public opinion, therefore extracting some imagined potential out of crude markets. The emphasis is on OPEC and its allies will react, with any production decisions able to set off instability once again. Energy observers are already keeping an eye on OPEC+’s intended output growth postponement or scaling back. In recent negotiations, the group had suggested just a little November increase, which soothed fears of oversupply.
Demand-side uncertainty persists even while. The possibility of a U.S. government shutdown raises the prospect of economic slack in one of the world’s biggest fuel consumers. That worry aggravates the already muddled worldwide development indicators, especially from major importers like China and India, which have started to show signs of slowing momentum. One more major source of conflict remains inventories. Inventories in important markets, including the United States and Asia-Pacific , have remained high, implying that supply still exceeds demand in the short run. These reserves may push prices downward if demand does not recover.